Stocks rush to their worst start since 1970

Next week will end the second quarter and first half of 2022 that has been a challenge for investors.

There are several key economic reports, including core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer prices – along with Nike earnings (NKE), Jeffries (JEF), micron technology (moand Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY).

S&P 500 . Index It rose more than 3% on Friday It gained more than 6% for the week, its second best week of the year and its first weekly rise since late May.

The benchmark is still in full swing for its first six opening months since 1970. Only five times since 1932 has the S&P 500 lost 15% or more in the first six months of the year. As of Friday’s close, the benchmark was down 18%.

“Bad as [this year] For investors, the good news is that previous years down at least 15% in the middle of the year have seen the last six months at a time rise, with an average return of close to 24%,” Ryan Detrick. Mentioned earlier this week.

Indeed, investors remain generally optimistic that there is a recovery ahead despite the slowdown this year.

Although analysts have lowered their price targets for the S&P 500 companies in recent months — bringing the bottom-up target price for the index below 5,000 for the first time since August 2021 — the estimate of 4,987.28 as of June 23 remains 31.4% above the same closing price. Today 3795.73, According to data from FactSet.

This indicates that analysts expect the index to rise more than 30% in the next 12 months.

S&P 500 index price target from bottom to top. against the closing price for the last 12 months.

Marko Kolanovic, chief strategist at JPMorgan, noted in a note to clients on Friday that US stocks Could go up 7% next week Investors rebalance their portfolios during the end of the month, the second quarter, and the first half of the year.

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“Rebalancing next week is important because stock markets have fallen dramatically over the past month, quarter and six months,” Kolanovic said. Moreover, the market is in an oversold state, cash balances are at record levels, and short-selling activity in the market has recently reached levels not seen since 2008.”

In the economic calendar, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data will be closely watched by traders this week. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its monthly personal spending deflationary index on Thursday, giving investors the latest view on inflation across the US economy as the Federal Reserve raises its key interest rate to tame price increases.

Economists polled by Bloomberg expect personal consumption expenditures to rise 0.7% in May, compared to 0.2% in the previous month. On an annual basis, the PCE deflator is expected to accelerate to 6.4%, up from 6.3% in April.

The core PCE index, which strips out the cost of food and energy, is expected to remain flat from the previous month’s reading. Economists are looking at a 5.1% increase in core personal consumption expenditures in May, compared to April’s 5.1% rise.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, US, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Mary F. Calvert

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, US, June 23, 2022. REUTERS/Mary F. Calvert

The latest PCE data will come as the US central bank’s fight against inflation looks increasingly complex, with a growing number of Wall Street economists and strategists suggesting that the Fed will not be able to rein in prices without pushing the economy into recession.

“I’m worried about that Possibility of soft landingwhich means lowering inflation without unnecessarily hurting growth and employment, has fallen dramatically due to a series of Fed errors.” Mohammed Al-Arian He told Yahoo Finance Live last week.

Elsewhere in the economic calendar, investors will keep a close eye on durable goods numbers on Monday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading on Tuesday, and several reports on manufacturing and housing throughout the week. Investors will also get a third and final reading of Q1 GDP.

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In terms of earnings, reports from Nike (NKEbed bath behind (BBBY), Jeffries (JEF) and Micron Technology (mo) will be included.

Economic calendar

Monday: Durable Goods OrdersPre-May (0.2% expected, 0.5% over the previous month); Durable goods excluding transportationMay preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.4% over the previous month); Pending home salesMoM, May (expect -3.9%, -3.9% over previous month); NSA Pending Home SalesYoY, Apr (-11.5% over the previous month); Federal Manufacturing Activity in DallasJune (-6.5 expected, -7.3 over the previous month)

Tuesday: Developed goods trade balanceMay (- US$ 105.4 billion expected, – US$ 105.9 billion over the previous month, revised to – US$ 106.7 billion); wholesale stockMoM, introductory May (2.2% expected, 2.2% over the previous month); retail stockMoM, May (expected 1.6, 0.7% over the previous month); FHFA Home Price IndexApr (1.6% expected, 1.5% over the previous month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City CompositeMoM, Apr (1.85% expected, 2.42% over previous month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City CompositeYoY, Apr (21.20% expected, 21.17% over the previous month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price IndexYoY, Apr (20.55% over the previous month); Consumer confidence in the conference boardJune (expect 100, 106.4 over the previous month); Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexJune (-5 expected, -9 over the previous month)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applicationsweek ending June 24 (-4.2% over the previous week); Annual GDPQuarterly, Q1-3 (-1.5% expected, -1.5% previously); personal consumptionQuarterly, Q1-3 (3.1% expected, 3.1% previously); GDP price indexQuarterly, Q1 Q3 (8.1% expected, 8.1% previously); PCE corequarterly, 1 second quarter (5.1% expected, 5.1% previously)

Thursday: personal incomeMoM, May (0.5% expected, 0.4% over the previous month); personal spendingMoM, May (0.4% expected, 0.9% over the previous month); real personal spendingMoM, May (-0.2% expected, 0.7% over the previous month); Unemployment Complaints Ratesweek ending June 25 (expect 230,000, and 229,000 over the previous week); Ongoing Claimsweek ending June 18 (expect 1.310 million, 1.315 million over the previous week); PCE contractionMoM, May (0.7% expected, 0.2% over the previous month); PCE contractionYoY, May (6.4%, 6.3% expected over the previous month); PCE primary shrinkage deviceMoM, May (0.4% expected, 0.3% over the previous month); PCE primary shrinkage deviceYoY, May (4.8% expected, 4.9% over previous month); MNI Chicago PMIJune (expect 58, 60.3 over the previous month)

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Friday: Standard & Poor’s global manufacturing in the United StatesJune Final (predict 52.4, ahead of 52.4); Construction spendingMoM, May (0.4% expected, 0.2% over the previous month); Manufacturing ISMJune (expect 54.7, 56.1 over the previous month); ISM rates paidJun (expect 80.0, 82.2 over previous month), ISM New Orders, Jun (55.1 over previous month); ISM recruitment, June (49.6 over the previous month); Total Wings Car SalesJune (13.40 million, 12.68 over the previous month)

earnings calendar

Monday

Before the market opens: There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

After market close: nike (NKE), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), Trip.com group (TCOM)

Tuesday

Before the market opens: There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

After market close: AeroVironment (AVAV)

Wednesday

Before the market opens: Barnes & Noble Education (BNED), bed bath behind (BBBY), general mills (GIS), McCormick & Company. (MKCC), Paychex (PayX)

After market close: milercanol (MLKN)

Thursday

Before the market opens: Constellation brands (STZ)

After market close: micron technology (mo), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

Friday

There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter Tweet embed

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