What to know this week in the markets

Minutes from the Federal Reserve November policy development meeting It is expected to help shape the holiday shortened week on Wall Street as markets look to rebound after a losing week.

The US stock and bond markets will be, too Closed on Thursday 24 NovemberIn celebration of Thanksgiving. Trading will also end early on Black Friday, with markets closing at 1pm ET

readings US central bank meeting discussions Earlier this month, due for release on Wednesday, will be the highlight of the light economic calendar in the coming days. The earnings calendar will also be relatively sparse as third-quarter reports come to a close.

registered shares a Losing last week despite modest gains on Friday distance Hardline Federalist Speaker Choir moist Optimism appeared Through the softer inflation data for the month of October.

The S&P 500 fell 0.7% last week while the Nasdaq Composite fell about 1.6%. Central Bank members confirmed In roughly a dozen speeches over the course of the week, they intend to push ahead with a toughening of the aggressive policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was roughly flat for the week.

Minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve committee that votes on monetary policy, likely show officials planning to raise interest rates by half a point at their December meeting.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostick was the latest Fed member to flag this possibility, saying in remarks Saturday in Florida that he Comfortable to get away with increments of 75 bp At the next meeting, however, confirmed rates could reach 4.75%-5% before the Fed ends its current tightening cycle.

“If the economy continues as I expect it to, I think 75 to 100 basis points of additional tightening would be warranted,” Bostick said in remarks to the Southern Economic Association in Fort Lauderdale. “Clearly more is needed, and I think this level of policy rate will be sufficient to rein in inflation over a reasonable period of time.” Bostic is not a current voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael W. Bostick. Photograph: Clodagh Kilkoyen/Reuters

Investors cheered the softening of inflation reports, but Bostick called the numbers a “mixed bag.” Consumer Price Index (CPI) It rose 7.7% last monthDown from 8.2% in September. While the figure showed that price increases subsided faster than expected in October, inflation was still more than three times the Fed’s price stability target of 2% — even as officials raised interest rates six times this year, Including four consecutive 0.75% rises.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference after the meeting this month that he and his colleagues said “some ways to go” In terms of mitigating high prices, acknowledging that the inflation picture is becoming more and more difficult.

“It means we have to have a more restrictive policy, and that narrows the way for a soft landing,” he said.

violent High interest rates shift risks The US economy has entered a recession, with Federal Reserve officials recently acknowledging this risk more openly.

“Federal Reserve Chair Powell recalibrated monetary policy at the November FOMC meeting by adopting a new velocity versus destination model — signaling an intent to reach a higher federal funds rate while doing so at a slower pace,” he said in a recent note. “The determination of central banks to aggressively tighten monetary policy coupled with the delayed effects of monetary policy on the economy increases the potential for excessive tightening.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day closed-door meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, US, November 2, 2022. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference in Washington, US, November 2, 2022. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz

Goldman Sachs has It raised its forecast for the Fed’s final interest rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%, with another rise of 25 basis points in May, indicating that the investment bank’s risk to the Fed’s outlook has tilted to the upside.

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“Inflation is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while, and this could put pressure on the FOMC to deliver a longer series of small hikes next year,” said economists led by Jan Hatzios.

Elsewhere on the economic calendar this week, durable goods orders readings and global PMI data will provide investors with the latest snapshots of industrial and manufacturing activity. Also, measures of new home sales and consumer confidence from the closely watched University of Michigan survey are now on tap.

Wall Street is nearing the end of earnings season, but it’s results from Dell Technologies (Dale), J.M. Smoker (SJM), video zoom (ZM) and dollar tree (DLTR) will be among some of the major corporate updates in the coming week.

Fewer companies reported concerns about a recession in the third quarter than in the second Data from FactSet Research.

Of the 500 S&P companies that made earnings calls from Sept. 15 to Nov. 16, 26% fewer companies cited the term “slump” — 179 mentioned the word, down from 242 in the last quarter’s earnings period.

However, this quarter still marked the third-highest number of companies stressing concerns about a potential economic downturn since at least 2010, according to FactSet data.

Economic calendar

Monday: There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Tuesday: Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity IndexOctober (0.10 over the previous month); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity IndexNovember (-7 expected, -10 during the previous month)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applicationsfor the week ending November 18 (2.7% over the previous week); Durable goods ordersOctober Preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.4% over the previous month); Durable goods excluding transportationOctober Preliminary (0.1% expected, 0.5% over the previous month); Unemployment claims ratesfor the week ending November 19 (expected 225,000 and 222,000 over the previous week); Continuing claimsfor the week ending November 12 (1.507 million over the previous week); Standard & Poor’s Global Manufacturing in the United StatesNovember Preliminary (50.0 expected, 50.4 over the previous month); S&P Global US Services PMIpreliminary November (48.0 expected, 47.8 over the previous month); S&P Global US Composite PMIPrime November (48.2 over the previous month); University of Michigan Consumer ConfidenceNovember Final (55.5 predicted, 54.7 ahead); New home salesOctober (575,000 expected, 603,000 over the previous month); New home saleson a monthly basis, October (-4.6% expected, -10.9% over the previous month); Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meetingAnd the November 1-2

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Thursday: Thanksgiving. There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Friday: Black Friday. There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Earnings calendar

Monday: agilent (a), Dell Technologies (Dale), J.M. Smoker (SJM), Jacobs Engineering (j), Li Auto (L.I), urban outfitters (URBN), Weber (WEBR), video zoom (ZM)

Tuesday: best buy (BBY), HP (HPQ), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), american eagle outfitters (AEO), analog devices (ADI), autodesk (ADSK), Baidu (Bedo), Burlington Stores (BURL), Canadian Solar Energy (CSIQ), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), dollar tree (DLTR), guess? (GES), jack in the box (jack), Medtronic (MDT), nordstrom (JWN), Vipshop (VIP), VMware (vmw), Warner Music Group (WMG)

Wednesday: Derry (DE) and SentinelOne (s)

Thursday: Thanksgiving. There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Friday: Black Friday. There are no notable reports scheduled for release.

Alexandra Semenova is a correspondent at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @employee

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