Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple iPhone shipments may decline in 2024

Apple CEO Tim Cook holds a new iPhone 15 Pro during a Project Wonderlust launch event at the company's headquarters in Cupertino, California, on September 12, 2023.

Lauren Elliott | Reuters

iPhone shipments are likely to take a hit this year, largely due to the growing popularity of foldable phones and Huawei's resurgence in the Chinese market, senior officials say. apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities.

Apple, which became China's largest smartphone seller last year for the first time, trimmed shipments of “key semiconductor components” to about 200 million units, which meant a 15% year-on-year decline in iPhone shipments, according to Kuo's report. Blog post Tuesday about the latest supply chain survey.

Apple's weekly shipments in China have fallen 30% to 40% from a year earlier in recent weeks, “and this downward trend is expected to continue,” Kuo wrote.

“Apple may see the biggest decline among major global mobile phone brands in 2024,” Kuo wrote.

Huawei's return as a smartphone maker coupled with “the growing preference for foldable phones among premium users as their first choice” in the Chinese market are the main reasons for the potential decline of iPhones, Kuo wrote. New phone designs that incorporate artificial intelligence are also changing the market.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Samsung The company has increased shipments of the new Galaxy S24 series this year by 5% to 10% as it sees “higher-than-expected” demand thanks to its AI-powered features, Kuo wrote. He added that Apple, at the same time, lowered its expectations for iPhone 15 shipments in the first half of 2024.

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With no major changes to iPhone designs expected until 2025 “at the earliest,” Kuo wrote, Apple's “shipping momentum and ecosystem growth” are set to decline in the meantime.

Apple is scheduled to announce its quarterly results on Thursday. Analysts expect to see revenue grow just 0.6% from a year earlier to $117.91 billion, according to LSEG, formerly Refinitiv. The average forecast is for Apple to post single-digit growth for the rest of the calendar year.

Apple shares fell 1.7% on Tuesday to $188.45.

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