NFL playoff picture after Week 16: The Ravens are closing in on the top seed in the AFC. NFC is up for grabs

The Baltimore Ravens earned their most impressive win of the season on Monday night, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 33-19. Besides making them look like worthy Super Bowl contenders, the win puts them in a great position in the AFC. At 12-3, they have a game lead over Miami and have a chance to clinch first place next week in a game against those Dolphins.

Meanwhile, the 49ers' loss sent them to 11-4 and a three-way tie atop the NFC with the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. The 49ers have the tiebreaker on both, but with two games remaining, there's still time for the Eagles or Lions to make a move.

As for the rest of the NFL, Week 16 saw a lot of action in the playoff picture. Let's take a look at where things stand as we enter Week 17.

The listed odds of making the playoffs, securing the No. 1 seed, and winning the Super Bowl are all across The athleteNFL betting model created by Austin Mock.

Asian qualifiers photo

seed a team register Week 16 result

S–1

12-3

W vs SF

S–2

11-4

W vs. D

3

9-6

L vs LV

4

8-7

L vs. tuberculosis

5

10-5

W vs HOU

6

9-6

W vs LAC

7

8-7

L vs ATL

x — Clinched a playoff berth | z — Grab the division title

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens delivered a message in San Francisco, not only on the scoreboard with their blowout of the 49ers but with the way they got physical all night long. Defensive coordinator Mike McDonald may have made his way onto some short lists for teams with head coaching vacancies.

Remaining schedule: vs. Miami Dolphins, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | To earn a bye: 69.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 17.2 percent

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins just earned their first victory of the season on Sunday against the Cowboys, and they earned it with a game-winning drive just before the buzzer. This is huge, not only for a team looking to seed but also as the Dolphins work to build confidence heading into the playoffs. They are now in position to capture the top seed if they can win on Sunday in Baltimore.

Remaining schedule: In Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | To earn a bye: 28.9 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 13.2 percent

The Chiefs have lost five of eight, and are 2-3 this season against teams that currently have winning records. Although it may seem reckless to write off quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' resume does not represent a team poised to win four straight playoff games.

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Remaining schedule: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, at Los Angeles Chargers

Prospect: For qualifying: 98.1 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 9.1 percent

The Jags are on the back of four straight losses, and injuries to quarterback Trevor Lawrence are increasing by the week. Their offensive issues over the past two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence's lack of practice time, but the defense is also leaking by giving up 29.5 points per game during the skid. Then again, the Bucs scored three touchdowns off turnovers, so the collapse became widespread.

Remaining schedule: vs. Carolina Panthers, at Tennessee Titans

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 65.9 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.2 percent

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Remaining schedule: vs. New York Jets, at Bengals

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | To earn a bye: 1.6 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 2.9 percent

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are starting a three-game winning streak in Kansas City, and they appear to be as dangerous as any team in the AFC. There's also the possibility we could see the next chapter of the Bills-Chiefs mini-rivalry in the wild card round.

Remaining schedule: At New England Patriots, at Dolphins

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 90.3 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 4.7 percent

The Colts laid an egg with a 29-10 loss in Atlanta, and are now in a four-way tie with the Texans, Steelers and Bengals. The Colts will almost certainly have to win and hope the tiebreaker works in their favor to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2020.

Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders vs. Houston Texans

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 66.4 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 0.9 percent

In pursuit

• Houston Texans (8-7)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
• Denver Broncos (7-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)

Excluded

• New York Jets (6-9)
• Tennessee Titans (5-10)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
• New England Patriots (4-11)

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NFC playoff picture

seed a team register Week 16 result

Z–1

11-4

L vs BAL

S–2

11-4

W vs NYG

Z–3

11-4

W vs Min

4

8-7

W v Jax

S–5

10-5

L vs MIA

6

8-7

W vs. no

7

8-7

W for ten

x — Clinched a playoff berth | z — Grab the division title

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback Brock Purdy's four interceptions will dominate the spotlight in the wake of the 49ers' one-sided loss to the Ravens, but don't ignore another key aspect. Trailing 23-12 with 12:07 remaining in the third quarter, Purdy was just 8-of-14 passing for 107 yards and one interception on four scoreless possessions before leaving with an injury. The worry for the 49ers was their inability to erase a late deficit, and they didn't make much of an impact when they fell behind on Monday night.

Remaining schedule: In Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | To earn a bye: 74.3 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 25.5 percent

Philadelphia Eagles

That's well established now, and very little will be easy for the Eagles, who haven't won a game by more than 8 points since Week 7. While the final two regular season games will be against non-playoff foes, they will be personal against former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and the Arizona Cardinals before a rematch with the Giants. The quality of the opposition will not be elite, but they will be tough games that will be good tune-ups for the playoffs.

Remaining schedule: Against the Cardinals, at the Giants

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | Earning bye: 22.4 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.8 percent

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Detroit Lions

The Lions finally won the NFC North and will host a playoff game for the first time in 30 years. They will also be looking for their first postseason win in 32 years — and only their second in the Super Bowl era. In a convenient and sadistic way, they may have to go through fan favorite Matthew Stafford to get the job done.

Remaining schedule: At Dallas Cowboys, vs. Minnesota Vikings

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | To earn a bye: 2.9 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 5.2 percent

The Bucs have won four straight, but they didn't have to beat a quality opponent to make a statement with a blowout against the Jaguars. There won't be high expectations for the Buccaneers — or whoever wins the NFC South title — against the NFC East runner-up, but a playoff berth in a rebuilding year after a 4-7 start should be viewed as a huge success for Tampa.

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Remaining schedule: vs. New Orleans Saints, at Panthers

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 89.1 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.7 percent

Dallas Cowboys

With Sunday's loss at Miami, the Cowboys fall to 2-2 on the season in one-possession games, and they have only won once (Week 13 against the Seahawks) when they trailed after the first quarter. Their lack of success in closely contested games will be a concern again in the playoffs.

Remaining schedule: Opposite black, in leaders

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 100 percent | To earn a bye: 0.5 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 7.8 percent

Go deeper

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Los Angeles Rams

There was little reason to believe the Rams would be in this position when they were 3-6, but they have won five of six since the bye week and have a chance to play spoilers if they can continue this run toward the playoffs.

Remaining schedule: At the Giants, at the 49ers

Prospect: To make the qualifiers: 68.2 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 1.1 percent

Go deeper

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Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks don't collect many style points, but they have proven they can win close games, including game-winning drives from quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock in the last two games. If they can get healthy for the playoffs, this physical team that has just endured a bunch of tough opponents will be an unenviable opponent.

Remaining schedule: Against the Steelers, at the Cardinals

Prospect: To conduct the qualifiers: 70 percent | To earn a bye: 0 percent | To win the Super Bowl: 0.9 percent

In pursuit

• Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
• Green Bay Packers (7-8)
• New Orleans Saints (7-8)
• Chicago Bears (6-9)

Excluded

• New York Giants (5-10)
• Washington leaders (4-11)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
• Carolina Panthers (2-13)

(Top photo of Lamar Jackson: Theron W. Henderson/Getty Images)


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