Real GDP GDP rose at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Table 1), according to the “third” estimate issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP rose by 4.9 percent.
Today's GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than was available for the “second” estimate released last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent. The update primarily reflects upward revisions in consumer spending and non-residential fixed investment that were partially offset by a downward revision of private inventory investment (see “GDP Updates”).
The increase in Real GDP It primarily reflects increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment, partially offset by declines in private inventory investment. Imports, which represent a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (Table 2).
Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the slowdown in… Real GDP The fourth quarter primarily reflects a decline in private inventory investment and a slowdown in federal government spending and fixed residential investment. Imports slowed.
GDP in current dollars It rose at a 5.1 percent annual rate, or $346.9 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $27.96 trillion, an upward revision of $12.4 billion from the previous estimate (Tables 1 and 3). More information about the source data underlying the estimates is available in the “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file on the BEA website.
the The price index for total domestic purchases It rose by 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as the previous estimate (Table 4). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The personal consumption expenditures index excluding food and energy prices rose 2.0 percent, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
Personal income
Personal income in current dollars It increased $230.2 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $10.7 billion from the previous estimate. This increase primarily reflects increases in compensation, personal income gains on assets, and owner income (Table 8).
Disposable personal income It increased $190.4 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $12.1 billion from the previous estimate. Real personal disposable income An increase of 2.0 percent, which is a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points.
Personal savings It was $815.5 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $6.3 billion from the previous estimate. the Personal savings rateThe personal saving rate as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
Gross domestic income and corporate profits
Real gross domestic income The overall growth rate (GDI) increased by 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.9 percent in the third quarter. the Average real GDP and real GDIIt, a supplementary measure of US economic activity that measures GDP and the total income index equally, rose 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent (Table 1).
Profit from current production (Corporate earnings with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $133.5 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of $108.7 billion in the third quarter (Table 10).
Profits of local financial companies It increased $5.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of $9.0 billion in the third quarter. Profits of local non-financial companies An increase of $136.5 billion, compared to an increase of $90.8 billion. Rest of world profits It decreased by $8.9 billion, compared to an increase of $8.8 billion. In the fourth quarter, revenues decreased by $20.1 billion, and payments decreased by $11.2 billion.
GDPR updates
With the third estimate, upward revisions to consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending were partially offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment and exports. Imports were revised downward. For more information, see the technical note. For information about GDPR updates, see the following “Additional Information” section.
| Advance estimate | Second estimate | Third estimate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (Percentage change from the previous quarter) | |||
| Real GDP | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| GDP in current dollars | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Real GDI | … | … | 4.8 |
| Average real GDP and real GDI | … | … | 4.1 |
| Local purchase price index | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Personal consumption expenditures price index | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
Real GDP by industry
Today's edition includes estimates for GDP by industryOr value added – a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP. Private industries producing goods increased by 7.0 percent, private industries producing services increased by 2.6 percent, and government industries increased by 3.1 percent (Table 12). Overall, 18 out of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real GDP during the fourth quarter.
- In private goods-producing industries, the main contributors to this increase were the non-durable goods industry (led by petroleum, coal and chemical products), the durable goods industry (led by machinery), and construction (Table 13).
- In private service-producing industries, the main contributors to this increase were retail trade (led by automobile and parts dealers), health care and social assistance (led by mobile health care services), utilities, and professional, scientific, and technical services. (Led by computer systems design and related services).
- The increase in government reflects increases in state and local governments as well as the federal government.
Gross output by industry
Real gross product— essentially a measure of an industry's sales or revenue, which includes sales to end users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs) — rose 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter. This reflects a 3.7% increase in private industries producing goods, a 2.0% increase in private industries producing services, and a 1.8% increase in the government sector (Table 16). Overall, 13 out of 22 industrial groups contributed to an increase in real GDP.
GDP for 2023
Real GDP They increased by 2.5 percent in 2023 (from the 2022 annual level to the 2023 annual level), compared to an increase of 1.9 percent in 2022 (Table 1). The increase in real GDP in 2023 primarily reflects increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, and federal government spending, partially offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased (Table 2).
Gross domestic income and corporate profits for 2023
Real GDI It increased by 0.5 percent in 2023, compared to an increase of 2.1 percent in 2022 (Table 1). Average real GDP and real GDI by 1.5 percent in 2023, compared to an increase of 2.0 percent in 2022.
In 2023, Profit from current production (Corporate earnings with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $49.3 billion, compared to an increase of $285.9 billion in 2022 (Table 10). Profits of local financial companies A decrease of $55.2 billion, compared to a decrease of $0.9 billion in 2022. Profits of local non-financial companies An increase of $66.6 billion, compared to an increase of $247.6 billion. Rest of world profits An increase of $37.9 billion, compared to an increase of $39.2 billion.
| Advance estimate | Second estimate | Third estimate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (Percentage change from the annual level of 2022 to the annual level of 2023) | |||
| Real GDP | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| GDP in current dollars | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Local purchase price index | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Personal consumption expenditures price index | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| (Percentage change from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023) | |||
| Real GDP | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Local purchase price index | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Personal consumption expenditures price index | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| Personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
Real GDP by industry for 2023
In 2023, private industries producing goods increased by 2.7 percent, private industries producing services increased by 2.7 percent, and government industries increased by 1.4 percent. Overall, 17 out of 22 industrial groups contributed to an increase in real GDP (Table 13).
- In private goods-producing industries, mining was the main contributor to this increase.
- The increase in private service-producing industries was driven by retail trade; Professional, scientific and technical services; Health care and social assistance; And information. These increases were partially offset by declines in finance and insurance as well as wholesale trade.
- The increase in government reflects increases in state and local governments as well as the federal government.
Real gross product Private industries producing goods increased by 2.0 percent in 2023, private industries producing services increased by 2.1 percent, and government industries increased by 2.2 percent (Table 16). Overall, 17 out of 22 industrial groups contributed to an increase in real GDP.
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Next release, April 25, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EST
GDP, Q1 2024 (advance estimate)
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