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brian is on the right path, his numbers are just a bit off Members of the upcoming 9 series (with the exception of the 9800GX2) will support triple sli. The current peak performer remains triple 8800 ultras, but its performance is significantly hindered in some games due to the way that they scale, and with the driver problems. Simply put, triple SLI is the fastest way to go, but in some games it can be seen as a mild step up from dual 8800u. The 9800GX2 in SLI will be faster if the drivers shape up, its no secret G92 is superior to G80 the only question is how they use it.
The big dates will come in March and June. Nvidia is likely to push hard for mid March, but the complications with the 9600GT and the 9800GX2 have caused delays already so there is no use getting into finer dates that may only exist on paper anyway. The rumor is the next triple sli player will be the 9800GT, which is G92 based. Think overclocked 8800GT with 2 sli connectors. Nvidia is remaining tight lipped as always about the bigger brothers, but know that the 8800 ultra will reach EOL very soon, and most likely so will the 8800GTX. Odds are we will see G92 replacing these performance levels at a lower price, and faster cores to bring in higher performance at that price.
Triple SLI is going to be the ultra premium level of things, but initially the 9800GX2 will be the better buy. Dual gpu cards have never been a good investment beyond the initial performance gains, but nvidia is taking ATI very serious with mulit gpu set ups and such cards are no longer being looked at as temporary fixes to gain the performance crown while the R&D guys get their thumbs out of each others asses. But the problem with multi gpu comes in on the driver level and the game design level, if either one is dragging its feet you can end up no better off than you are with a cheaper set up. Remember the 7950gx2 anyone? Remember how few games supported quad crossfire, and how rare it was to actually see 2x 7950GX2 coming out ahead of dual 7900GTX? This is partly why dual gpu cards end up delayed and people considering them half-assed. Its hard to justify buying something now that has weak performance due to drivers/compatibility, considering that by the time the support really is up to snuff, the replacement for that card is preparing to launch.
Nvidia is in a strong position, they have had the performance crown for a while and have made a fortune off the current pricing. Nvidia is in the position that they could essentially just rebadge the 8800 series and sell em at a 20% price cut, and still walk away ahead of ATI.
Generally you want to build your new architecture off a proven manufacturing process, then you want to shrink it and improve weak points, then you want to do some form of overhaul, and then you hope your new architecture is in line with your latest die shrink process. It is much more likely that the upcoming "9800 GTX" will be 65nm, and will likely sport a similar architecture to G92, with shader count bumped up.
It simply doesn't make sense for Nvidia to trade in a good design for an unproven one. New architectures are not easy to deal with, simply put you never know what you have until you have a die on a test bench, until then all you can deal with is simulated performance. I'll bet my money on Nvidia riding out the glorious G80 until the competition walks away with 10/10 benchmarks, and Nvidia starts to get hit with poor sales. If Nvidia has a truly new architecture to replace the G80/G92, odds are its barely left the design room. They are under no pressure to release a product ahead of schedule.
Also note that with the acquisition of Ageia by Nvidia, and the announcement that the 8 series cards will feature some form of gpu accelerated physics, you can bet they are working even harder to get the 9 series to offer superior support.
ATI's HD4000 series has a bit more weight to it though. If the current numbers reflect correctly and ATI is pushing RV770 with 480 shaders, 32 TMUs, and 16 ROPs then ATI has increased their already strong shader processing performance, and effectively doubled one of their weakest points (texture fillrate). Current HD3870s have effectively 1/4 of the texture fillrate as the G92 8800GTS 512. Pixel fillrate hasnt scaled linearly since the 6800 series because pixel fillrate is no longer king, thats the shader processors If ATI's single gpu configuration doesn't out pace Nvidia's top solution, you can bet ATI's dual gpu configurations will and do it with a competitive price.
So while Nvidia is adding bells and whistles to a strong architecture, ATI is going to be stream lining a competitive product and looking to undercut Nvidia with strong feature sets, better power management, and cheaper pricing. Average joe may not care Nvidia is 12fps ahead in a game that both products will offer more performance than they really need to maintain smooth performance.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stang
brian is on the right path, his numbers are just a bit off Members of the upcoming 9 series (with the exception of the 9800GX2) will support triple sli. The current peak performer remains triple 8800 ultras, but its performance is significantly hindered in some games due to the way that they scale, and with the driver problems. Simply put, triple SLI is the fastest way to go, but in some games it can be seen as a mild step up from dual 8800u. The 9800GX2 in SLI will be faster if the drivers shape up, its no secret G92 is superior to G80 the only question is how they use it.
The big dates will come in March and June. Nvidia is likely to push hard for mid March, but the complications with the 9600GT and the 9800GX2 have caused delays already so there is no use getting into finer dates that may only exist on paper anyway. The rumor is the next triple sli player will be the 9800GT, which is G92 based. Think overclocked 8800GT with 2 sli connectors. Nvidia is remaining tight lipped as always about the bigger brothers, but know that the 8800 ultra will reach EOL very soon, and most likely so will the 8800GTX. Odds are we will see G92 replacing these performance levels at a lower price, and faster cores to bring in higher performance at that price.
Triple SLI is going to be the ultra premium level of things, but initially the 9800GX2 will be the better buy. Dual gpu cards have never been a good investment beyond the initial performance gains, but nvidia is taking ATI very serious with mulit gpu set ups and such cards are no longer being looked at as temporary fixes to gain the performance crown while the R&D guys get their thumbs out of each others asses. But the problem with multi gpu comes in on the driver level and the game design level, if either one is dragging its feet you can end up no better off than you are with a cheaper set up. Remember the 7950gx2 anyone? Remember how few games supported quad crossfire, and how rare it was to actually see 2x 7950GX2 coming out ahead of dual 7900GTX? This is partly why dual gpu cards end up delayed and people considering them half-assed. Its hard to justify buying something now that has weak performance due to drivers/compatibility, considering that by the time the support really is up to snuff, the replacement for that card is preparing to launch.
Nvidia is in a strong position, they have had the performance crown for a while and have made a fortune off the current pricing. Nvidia is in the position that they could essentially just rebadge the 8800 series and sell em at a 20% price cut, and still walk away ahead of ATI.
Generally you want to build your new architecture off a proven manufacturing process, then you want to shrink it and improve weak points, then you want to do some form of overhaul, and then you hope your new architecture is in line with your latest die shrink process. It is much more likely that the upcoming "9800 GTX" will be 65nm, and will likely sport a similar architecture to G92, with shader count bumped up.
It simply doesn't make sense for Nvidia to trade in a good design for an unproven one. New architectures are not easy to deal with, simply put you never know what you have until you have a die on a test bench, until then all you can deal with is simulated performance. I'll bet my money on Nvidia riding out the glorious G80 until the competition walks away with 10/10 benchmarks, and Nvidia starts to get hit with poor sales. If Nvidia has a truly new architecture to replace the G80/G92, odds are its barely left the design room. They are under no pressure to release a product ahead of schedule.
Also note that with the acquisition of Ageia by Nvidia, and the announcement that the 8 series cards will feature some form of gpu accelerated physics, you can bet they are working even harder to get the 9 series to offer superior support.
ATI's HD4000 series has a bit more weight to it though. If the current numbers reflect correctly and ATI is pushing RV770 with 480 shaders, 32 TMUs, and 16 ROPs then ATI has increased their already strong shader processing performance, and effectively doubled one of their weakest points (texture fillrate). Current HD3870s have effectively 1/4 of the texture fillrate as the G92 8800GTS 512. Pixel fillrate hasnt scaled linearly since the 6800 series because pixel fillrate is no longer king, thats the shader processors If ATI's single gpu configuration doesn't out pace Nvidia's top solution, you can bet ATI's dual gpu configurations will and do it with a competitive price.
So while Nvidia is adding bells and whistles to a strong architecture, ATI is going to be stream lining a competitive product and looking to undercut Nvidia with strong feature sets, better power management, and cheaper pricing. Average joe may not care Nvidia is 12fps ahead in a game that both products will offer more performance than they really need to maintain smooth performance.
bah, I should stop ranting and get some breakfast
I think that the ATI FirePro series went the distance and they were pretty good graphics card. Nvidia is late for them. But as long as SLI mode will work and give their maximum and if the other computer is properly, a strong processor, strong power, dual high speed ram, hdd raid .... I personally think that all components of a little care, nothing new is happening for a long time, all states, not some new technology ...