Page 4 - Nuclear Fusion

The biggest controversy on the issue is the fact that we are exhausting our fossil fuel sources - we are just about at the half way mark, and our consumption growth is exponential. We should exhaust the entire earth's suppply in like (I forget the actual number, so I'm throwing out a guess here..) under 200 years or so. Thats why we are looking into renewable sources.

200 years? wow, people just throw numbers out there. I heard less then a decade.

We can, however, agree that a change has to be made.

I didn't want to be overzealous with my guess and try to make it sound like I was some loony conspiracy theory guy, thinking oil would deplete in like 10 years. I know its not actually that low - I think the actual guess is between 2050 and 2075 we will be out. The estimate has changed from the original guess of 2025, due partially to a slowing in the growth of oil consumption, as well as breakthroughs in alternatives - such as hybrid vehicles, hydrogen cars which are being tested in some countries, nuclear power, etc. Some of the more optimistic guesses are actually as far out as 2300.

10 years is a pessimistic guess. Just undiscovered oil alone will sustain us for that long. The US would be able to sustain itself on its reserves for a few years, taking into consideration that in the event that we were that close to running out, its use would be a lot less common.

No demand is growing and we're going to run out sooner or later. 2010 is when they say we'll hit peak oil and then start declining from there in supplies.

The current level of the reserves is less than 700 million barrels. If you go by the average usage of about 20 million barrels per day that only gives about 35 days. In reality the reserves could only sustain only a maximum of about 4.4 million barrels per day for up to 90 days. After that the drawdown rate would be much less.


It seems I heard that it was going to run out in 10 years over 30 years ago.

I won't dispute that at our current usage rate, your calculation is correct. But the price alone, assuming our reserves were the only existing oil on the planet, make average consumer use impossible. It wouldn't be worth using it in most manufacturing settings, because it would increase the cost of building products so much that again - the average consumer could not afford it, which would make the manufacturing process pointless. It's use would then be for absolute necessity, and the government would horde it for that reason - and could feasibly last several years.

edit:
And cody_e, demand growth is slowing - as I said. Demand is growing, but that growth is slowing. The demand for oil will be peaking very soon if it hasn't already.