The Fifth Computing Revolution: Ballmer`s Vision - Analyzing the Ingredients
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In the previous section we've enumerated the five so-called ingredients of the fifth revolution. Out of them the first two are technically no-brainers: more processing power and huge amounts of storage. Anybody that is somewhat familiar with the IT industry knows that better processors are coming out on a frequent basis and that storage becomes cheaper and cheaper. Lately, having even a few terabytes of isn't that uncommon.
Still have doubts? Okay then, what about Gmail? Could you have imagined having 6,554 megabytes (at the time of writing but fortunately still counting) of email storage back in the early 2000s? Surely you couldn't have. The same thing applies to computing power. With the latest processors we're able to accomplish much more in less time; still, they are affordable.
Earlier this article we've mentioned that right now we've gotten so accustomed to the changes brought by earlier computing revolutions -- especially the Internet -- that we cannot really imagine living without the web and the awesome functions derived from it such as emails, instant messaging, teleconferencing, etc. Since the dominant trend of CES 2008 was focused on Web 3.0, the most debated issues were also related to the wireless broadband infrastructure.
We must admit that now we're just pioneering in this area; there are lots of things to do and plenty of headroom left for improvement. And bandwidth speed isn't the only necessity; most importantly we need totally ubiquitous coverage on an "always and everywhere" basis. This is really critical. Without broadband wireless Internet access most of today's gadgets and portable devices won't work (i.e. Kindle, Intel's MID, etc.).
This also explains the reason why companies are massively brainstorming and heavily researching innovative solutions to improve our wireless infrastructure. Wi-Fi, 3G UMTS, and Wi-Max could be some of the examples. Developing such an advanced infrastructure that coverage won't be a problem anymore requires time.
According to Steve Ballmer, ubiquitous broadband access is required because that is how we could tap into our massive amounts of storage and all of that powerful processing power wherever we go. Lately, a lot of the focus has been on features like portability. The basic vision is to be able to access our data from part of the world using only one gadget, not dozens.
Finally, we come to the last two ingredients: natural user interfaces and display screens. Apparently, the way we operate our computers and tech devices is really unnatural. Right now organizations and companies are researching methods to turn the interaction between people and computers into something that feels like it's person to person. This involves written and spoken speech, as well as touch and gestures.
Thanks to Natural UIs the complexity of operating certain software would be reduced almost to zero. All you would be required to do is perhaps sit down in your office chair and ask the computer to help you out by giving verbal commands. Steve couldn't have said it better:-
"We'll still use a keyboard and a mouse when it's most efficient. But at other times, you'll tell your device what you want it to do, or simply use a wave of your hand."
And finally, we need better display devices. With display panels the trend goes the same way as with every other hardware component - better quality, bigger sizes, lighter design, and still cheaper. That's the way technology works. Though perhaps the most revolutionary idea regarding displays is the ability to "simply link our devices to a nearby display, or project information onto whatever surface is handy."
Also, Steve Ballmer thinks that by the time the fifth revolution ends (somewhere around 2015 or so) we would be all having high-definition screens everywhere. This sounds more than possible and as a matter of fact, it is almost guaranteed. The earlier idea on linking devices to nearby displays or projecting the information onto surfaces sounds far more stretching and provocative. Time will tell... let's hope for the best!
Next: Vision of the Future: 2015 >>
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