The Fifth Computing Revolution: Ballmer`s Vision - Theory of the Revolutions
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Since we want to discuss Steve Ballmer's opening speech and some of us might not have been lucky enough to personally be present at Hanover to listen the his keynote, fortunately Deutsche Messe comes to the rescue. The entire three-thousand-word opening speech can be acquired in RTF format and read online - download here. If that link does not work then settle for its HTML version - visit this page.
On first glance it might look notoriously long but-trust me-it is well worth reading if you couldn't attend the CeBIT 2008. In this section of the article we're going to discuss the introductions which preface the foreseen fifth revolution. We'll bring examples from the history of earlier revolutions, set the time-frames, and understand that right now we're facing the end of the fourth and the beginning of a new revolution.
Right after that, we'll talk about the key trends of the fifth revolution regarding the tech issues and, basically, what must be done, focused upon, and innovated in order to accomplish the "requirements" of the fifth revolution. Keep in mind that the cycle of a computing revolution like this is approximately 7 (seven) years. Therefore, if a new one starts right now, theoretically it should end somewhere around 2015.
Approaching this vision of the future and the way the fifth revolution should alter and enrich our lives requires an open mind. Some of the listed factors or thoughts may seem far-fetched, but please, just realize that seven years of evolution and innovation in technology sometimes can totally redefine our lives and technically jump-start dozens of other innovation-strings opening up new doors of opportunities.
Calculating the seven-year pattern was based on the notable innovations in the technology of computing and telecommunications that were the most visible. As such, first and foremost, revolution number one stood for the development of PCs (personal computers). By the time this revolution ended, PCs had become a widespread and mainstream product which was quite affordable.
The second revolution has been known as the rise of GUIs, which made it much easier to operate and manage personal computers. During the first revolution the companies that stood out were certainly IBM, Intel, and Apple. With revolution number two, the standout companies were Xerox (for invention) and Apple (for marketing). The third revolution is based on totally collective contributions since it's the Internet!
You should've understood by now that it isn't that important which companies contribute the most to a revolution. Well, it does, because they are very profitable, but all companies are supported collectively at their end. We all benefit from computing revolutions; they have enriched our lives, and now we can't imagine living without the changes they've brought.
The fourth revolution started around 2002 when Steve Ballmer gave yet another opening speech back then at CeBIT. That's when he also mentioned the presence of the earlier three revolutions. Right now, at 2008, the fourth one should also reach its end having most of its goals already accomplish. One cannot delineate these periods with absolute accuracy, though. There is a sweet synergy between the revolutionary transitions.
The target and objective of the fourth revolution shouldn't surprise anyone since it's the Web 3.0. You see, lately there's been a myriad of activity at tech conferences with people going around and talking about the upcoming version of the Web, the mighty Web 3.0. This also signals that the reign of Web 2.0 is over and it's time for a new one; which also marks the end of the fourth revolution, indeed.
Therefore, we understand that 2008 is the beginning of something new. Steve Ballmer believes that the following five trends will describe revolution number five: expanded processing power, significantly expanded storage, ubiquitous wireless broadband, natural user interfaces, and display screens.
"Together, these five ingredients will change almost everything we do." ~Steve Ballmer
Next: Analyzing the Ingredients >>
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