Most computer geeks know about Moore's Law and that it states that the transistor count in CPUs will double every 18 months. It's actually a theory, and it has been so dead on that many people consider it a law at this point. It's great that CPU transistors double every 18 months, but at some point it needs to slow down, at least for the everyday computer.
I think that over the next few years we will see a shift in CPU design. It's great that they can cram four cores into a single die, but for everyday computing, it's overkill. The average business computer really only needs to run Internet Explorer, Office, and a few other applications. From what I have seen, few business computers need a dual core Core 2 Duo CPU.
The problem I see the most in computers is heat. Intel recently released their Atom CPU aimed at UMPCs. We should see a major shift in attitude from the desktop makers. Instead of thinking "Let's see how fast we can make this CPU," they'll design computers based on the idea of "Let's see how efficient a CPU we can get while keeping up a good amount of processing power."
Microsoft seems to have missed the boat on this one. This is the only reason why XP is still around. Vista went along the way of computers focusing on raw CPU power over the next few years. UMPCs are starting to become the craze, and the hardware in UMPCs isn't capable of running Vista. I suppose that they could throw on Windows CE or Mobile, but that would cripple the machines. Microsoft really doesn't have an OS at this level; you either get an old OS with XP, or a sluggish one with Vista.
Apple with OS X has managed to make it robust. I'm going to go back to the fact that OS X can run from a 900 MHz CPU to dual quad core CPUs. They even managed to get a modified version to run on the iPhone. Apple's UMPC, the MacBook Air, is right in the scheme of things in the UMPC market, and runs some pretty impressive hardware. It isn't as fast as the full-fledged MacBooks, but can still run the newest OS without any issues. I would feel confident I could throw OS X Leopard onto nearly any Mac in the past five years and it would run fluidly.
Compatibility
Windows is designed for both home and business use. Backwards compatibility is a must for businesses. They don't need compatibility with programs 20 years old, but there are programs under five years old that simply don't work anymore under Vista. I would say that if the program is of any importance, your IT department probably isn't going to be upgrading Windows any time soon because of this.
The answer for this is virtualization. The engineering behind virtualization is snowballing now,; it is becoming a great option for compatibility. Previously, there was another layer between hardware and software. The virtualization software would have to convert everything into something the main OS could read and understand, then pass it to the hardware. Now programs such as VMware can have direct access to the hardware level.
There is very little difference between a virtual hosted OS and a normal OS now. If Microsoft could add some virtualization applications into Windows and allow those applications to run that previously wouldn't have natively, I think a lot of people would jump on board the next Windows release.
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