International Data Corporation (IDC) released its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker last week, and it offers some promising projections for the market share of devices running on the Windows Phone operating system. By 2015, the global market intelligence firm predicts that Windows Phone will leapfrog Apple iOS to claim the number two spot overall behind Google's Android.

Taking a closer look at the IDC report's numbers reveals a projected 2015 market share for Windows Phone of 20.3 percent.  That would be a huge jump over the current 3.8 percent share that the Microsoft platform holds.  The main reasoning for such Windows Phone optimism is Nokia.  The cell phone manufacturer stated that it would begin using the Windows Phone OS as its go to platform, and its strong presence in overseas markets should help boost market share considerably over the next four years.

While Windows Phone has a bright future, Google's Android OS looks to keep it in the top overall spot in 2015.  Android became the OS leader in the fourth quarter of 2010, when it passed Symbian.  Android currently has a 38.9 percent market share, and IDC expects the percentage to surpass the 40 percent mark over the remainder of 2011.  The 2015 projection for Android market share is 43.8 percent.  It's growth has come from an impressive list of vendors that have made Android their platform of choice. 

As mentioned, Apple's iOS is expected to drop from second to third place in 2015 due to the growing presence of Windows Phone.  The iOS platform currently enjoys a market share of 18.2 percent, and it's 2015 projection is slated at 16.9 percent.  Although iOS is clearly no slouch amongst the competition, its shipment numbers are expected to become less pronounced when compared to its usual initial growth periods.

Symbian has the bleakest 2015 outlook by far amongst smartphone operating systems.  By 2015, IDC projects Symbian to have a 0.1 percent market share, down 68.8 percent from its current share level of 20.6 percent.  The main reason behind the projected precipitous fall is Nokia's switch over to Windows Phone.  The one silver lining for Symbian is the fact that Nokia is committed to support Symbian devices until 2016.  

BlackBerry OS currently holds the number four spot in the smartphone operating system rankings with a 14.2 percent share, and that ranking is expected to remain the same in 2015.  A 13.4 percent market share is projected in four years.  This decline is a tad surprising considering shipment levels are supposed to grow, and it can be attributed to the growth of other smartphone operating systems, particularly Windows Phone.

IDC's report also denotes an overall smartphone market that is booming.  Vendors shipped approximately 305 million units in 2010, and that number is expected to reach 472 million this year.  By 2015, shipments are projected to reach the 982 million mark.  Kevin Restivo, a senior research analyst with IDC, commented on the smartphone boom: “The smartphone floodgates are open wide.  Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their 'talk-and-text' devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere.  The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days.  As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years."

For more on this topic, visit http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS22871611

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